000ABNT20 KNHC 191743TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Off the East Coast of the United States:A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area is located along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeast coast of the United States.  This low is likely to move slowly north-northeastward over the next couple of days.  If the low remains over the Gulf Stream and becomes detached from the front, it could briefly acquire some subtropical cyclone characteristics during the middle to latter portions of the week.  The system is expected to move northeastward away from the the eastern United States later this week, and environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for development by the weekend.  Regardless of the status of the system, high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the U.S. East Coast during the next few days.  Please consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center for more information, along with High Seas Forecasts and Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather Service.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.&&High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php$$Forecaster Pasch

No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 23:27:44 GMT

237 ABPZ20 KNHC 192325TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL500 PM PDT Mon Oct 19 2026For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Trudy, located a couple of hundred miles west of west-central Mexico.South of Southern Mexico (EP94):Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to show signs of organization in association with a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or so as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph, remaining well offshore of Central America and southern Mexico.* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.$$Forecaster Evans/Katz/Papin

Tropical Storm Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Storm Trudy (EP1/EP212026) ...TRUDY NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT WEAKENS... As of 2:00 PM MST Mon Oct 19 the center of Trudy was located near 19.3, -107.9 with movement at mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Trudy

• Tropical Storm Trudy Public Advisory Number 26 Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Oct 19 2026 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 192032 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Trudy Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 200 PM MST Mon Oct 19 2026 ...TRUDY NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT WEAKENS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 107.9W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Trudy was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 107.9 West. Trudy is nearly stationary, but is forecast to begin moving to the northwest over the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Trudy is forecast to become post-tropical by tomorrow. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Trudy are gradually subsiding today along coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Evans/Zelinsky]]>
• Tropical Storm Trudy Forecast Advisory Number 26 Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 19 2026 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 192032 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026 2100 UTC MON OCT 19 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.9W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.9W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 107.9W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.4N 108.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N 108.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.8N 109.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.2N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 107.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER EVANS/ZELINSKY]]>
• Tropical Storm Trudy Forecast Discussion Number 26 Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Oct 19 2026 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 192033 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Trudy Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 200 PM MST Mon Oct 19 2026 Trudy's nocturnal burst of convection has weakened this morning. Microwave imagery from around 1300 UTC suggests a broad center of circulation is present, with convection concentrated primarily to the east and northeast. ASCAT data from around 1630 UTC also suggested max winds in the 30-35 kt range, with the storm's center located to the southeast compared to the previous advisory. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity analysis from TAFB also reflects a weakening trend for the storm. Based primarily on the ASCAT data, Trudy's initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt. The tropical storm does not appear to have moved much on satellite imagery today, and its motion is estimated to be stationary. Trudy's lack of motion is driven primarily by light steering flow associated with a low- to mid-level ridge centered to its northeast. In addition, moderate 20 to 30 kt westerly winds aloft forcing the deep convection to essentially remain in place down-shear of the center. It's possible that earlier the low-level center tried to reform closer to the deep convection. Track guidance suggests that Trudy will move very slowly, with most models indicating a westward to northwestward motion until the system dissipates. The latest NHC track forecast follows a blend of GDMI and HCCA guidance, which reflects this slow motion toward the northwest. Trudy is expected to undergo further weakening as it remains in an environment defined by increasing vertical wind shear, dry mid-level air, and upper-level convergence. While the storm may undergo one more round of diurnally-driven convection, simulated satellite imagery from global models suggest that Trudy will become post-tropical in 24 hours, before dissipating after another day or so. The latest NHC intensity forecast hastens Trudy's overall weakening trend, while holding steady during possible bouts of convective re-development. Large swells affecting the coast of southwestern Mexico and west-central Mexico associated with Trudy are diminishing today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 19.3N 107.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 19.4N 108.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 19.5N 108.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 21/0600Z 19.8N 109.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/1800Z 20.2N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Evans/Zelinsky]]>
• Tropical Storm Trudy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26 Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 19 2026 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 192032 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026 2100 UTC MON OCT 19 2026 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER EVANS/ZELINSKY]]>
• Tropical Storm Trudy Graphics
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Oct 2026 21:22:43 GMT ]]>