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Advisories - Atlantic


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 202304
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Sebastien, located a few hundred miles north-northeast of
the northern Leeward Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Sebastien (AT5/AL202019) ...SEBASTIEN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Nov 20 the center of Sebastien was located near 22.2, -61.5 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Sebastien

  • Tropical Storm Sebastien Public Advisory Number 7 Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Nov 20 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 210252 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sebastien Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 1100 PM AST Wed Nov 20 2019 ...SEBASTIEN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.2N 61.5W ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien was located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 61.5 West. Sebastien is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the northeast is forecast overnight, with an increase in forecast speed during the day on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and Sebastien could become a hurricane late Thursday or Friday before weakening this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Advisory Number 7 Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 21 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 210251 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 0300 UTC THU NOV 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 61.5W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 30SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 61.5W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 61.5W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 23.3N 60.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 25.5N 57.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 28.0N 53.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 31.0N 49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 37.0N 38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 150SE 120SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 61.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Discussion Number 7 Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Nov 20 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 210253 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Sebastien Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 1100 PM AST Wed Nov 20 2019 Deep convection has intensified near and to the southeast of the center of Sebastien this evening, and a recent partial ASCAT pass suggests the center is still on the edge of the thunderstorms. Satellite intensity estimates have risen slightly, so the initial wind speed is set to 50 kt, on the high side of the recent values. The storm continues to move slowly to the north tonight. Increasing deep-layer flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough should turn Sebastien northeastward overnight and cause the cyclone to further accelerate by late Thursday and Friday. The models aren't in great agreement on how quickly the storm will move to the northeast, however, with the model guidance having a stronger storm generally moving faster to the northeast. Since Sebastien isn't expected to get that intense, it makes physical sense to avoid the fastest solutions. Thus, the new forecast is slower than the last one, closer to the model consensus than the GFS-based guidance. The environment is forecast to become more conducive for strengthening during the next 24 hours as significant upper-level divergence increases near Sebastien. Combined with low or moderate shear and warm waters, these conditions should support further intensification, and the new NHC forecast now shows Sebastien as a hurricane for a short period of time. Notably, this forecast is still on the conservative side of the guidance, with all of the regional hurricane models showing Sebastien becoming a fairly potent hurricane in a day or two. This doesn't seem likely after examining the model initial structure of the HWRF/HMON models, which show a much more vertically aligned cyclone than Sebastien appears to be now, so the NHC forecast is only a bit higher than the last one. In a couple of days, the storm will be moving over cooler waters, with increasing shear and baroclinicity. That should facilitate Sebastien's transition to a non-tropical cyclone by the end of the work week, but note that the extratropical transition has been shifted back about a day due to the stronger-than-forecast cyclone likely staying a little more separate from an incoming cold front. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 22.2N 61.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 23.3N 60.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 25.5N 57.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 28.0N 53.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 31.0N 49.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 24/0000Z 37.0N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Sebastien Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7 Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 21 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 210252 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 0300 UTC THU NOV 21 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Sebastien Graphics Tropical Storm Sebastien 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Nov 2019 02:53:09 GMT

    Tropical Storm Sebastien 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Nov 2019 03:24:29 GMT ]]>

Advisories - Eastern Pacific

NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202304
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 PM PST Wed Nov 20 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila


There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 21 Nov 2019 03:29:27 GMT