Tropical Weather

Global Sea Temperatures

Tropical Sea Temperature Map from WeatherUnderground

Click image to visit Weather Underground Tropical Weather Center

Current Atlantic Satellite Loop

Satellite loop from WeatherUnderground

Current Pacific Satellite Loop

Satellite loop from WeatherUnderground

Advisories - Atlantic


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 211718
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 21 Oct 2018 17:35:40 GMT

Advisories - Eastern Pacific

NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211731
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 21 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Vicente, located about 100 miles south-southeast of Puerto
Escondido, Mexico, and on Hurricane Willa, located a couple of
hundred miles south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

A small area of low pressure is located about 950 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.  Upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable
for significant development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.


$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Vicente (EP3/EP232018) ...VICENTE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 the center of Vicente was located near 14.4, -96.8 with movement WSW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Vicente

  • Tropical Storm Vicente Public Advisory Number 9 Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 211442 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 ...VICENTE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 96.8W ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Vicente. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 96.8 West. Vicente is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west is expected by this evening, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest by Monday evening. On the forecast track, the center of Vicente is expected to remain just offshore or near the southern coast of Mexico through Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Vicente is a small tropical cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds only extending outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Vicente or its remnants is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches near the coast of southern Mexico. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Advisory Number 9 Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 211442 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 1500 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 96.8W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 96.8W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 96.4W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.2N 98.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.4N 99.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.4N 101.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.9N 102.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.7N 104.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 96.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 9 Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 211442 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 Vicente remains a tiny tropical cyclone, and its cloud pattern consists of a small Central Dense Overcast with disorganized convection over the southwestern portion of the circulation. There is little evidence of banding features at this time. The current intensity is held at 45 kt in agreement with subjective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB. North-northeasterly vertical shear is likely to limit intensification during the next couple of days. Vicente should quickly dissipate when it interacts with the land mass of Mexico by mid-week. Satellite fixes and images from the Puerto Angel, Mexico radar indicate that the storm is still moving a little south of west, and the motion estimate continues to be 255/8 kt. There has been little change in the track forecast or the reasoning behind it. Vicente should gradually turn toward the west and northwest while moving along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high pressure area. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 14.4N 96.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 14.2N 98.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 14.4N 99.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 15.4N 101.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 16.9N 102.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 19.7N 104.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Vicente Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9 Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 211442 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 1500 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) X(28) X(28) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 14(39) X(39) X(39) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 8(32) X(32) X(32) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 100W 34 X 32(32) 21(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) 15N 100W 50 X 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 100W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Vicente Graphics Tropical Storm Vicente 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 21 Oct 2018 14:44:05 GMT

    Tropical Storm Vicente 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 21 Oct 2018 15:21:56 GMT ]]>

Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane Willa (EP4/EP242018) ...WILLA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 12:00 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 the center of Willa was located near 16.8, -106.9 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Hurricane Willa

  • Hurricane Willa Public Advisory Number 6A Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 211735 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 1200 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018 ...WILLA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 106.9W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * San Blas to Mazatlan A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Playa Perula to San Blas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Additional watches may be required for a portion of the coast of mainland Mexico later today, and interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 106.9 West. Willa is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northwest and north is expected by tonight and Monday. Willa is expected to accelerate toward the north-northeast and approach the southwestern coast of mainland Mexico by late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Willa is expected to become a major hurricane by Monday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.67 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves are possible along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico by Tuesday or Tuesday night. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area by early Tuesday. RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa in Mexico. This rainfall would cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce 2 to 4 inch amounts across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches possible. This rainfall could also cause life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Willa should begin to affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico by Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown ]]>
  • Hurricane Willa Forecast Advisory Number 6 Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 211442 TCMEP4 HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018 1500 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS NORTHWARD TO MAZATLAN... AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PLAYA PERULA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF SAN BLAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TODAY... AND INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 106.7W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 106.7W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 106.6W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.2N 107.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.2N 107.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.3N 107.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.4N 107.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 23.3N 105.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 26.5N 101.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 106.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>
  • Hurricane Willa Forecast Discussion Number 6 Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 211443 TCDEP4 Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 900 AM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018 First-light GOES-16 visible satellite imagery shows that Willa continues to become better organized, with a tightly coiled band of convection wrapping around the center. There has also been evidence of a small eye in recent microwave and infrared satellite pictures. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 77 kt to 90 kt, and the initial intensity has been increased to 85 kt for this advisory. Willa is moving northwestward or 325/6 kt. The track guidance continues to indicate that Willa will move northwestward today, then turn northward on Monday, and then head north-northeastward on Tuesday between a deep-layer ridge that extends westward from the Gulf of Mexico and an approaching mid-level trough. The dynamical model guidance remains in good overall agreement on this scenario, but there are differences in how quickly Willa will accelerate north-northeastward. The UKMET and ECMWF are much slower than the remainder of the dynamical models, with the GFS and GFS ensemble mean the fastest. The NHC track forecast brings the center of the Willa onshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico within 72 h, and it lies closest to the HFIP corrected consensus, which is a little faster than the other consensus aids. The hurricane is expected to remain within low vertical wind shear and over warm waters of around 28 degrees Celsius during the next day or two. These very favorable conditions are expected to allow steady to rapid strengthening through Monday night, and the NHC forecast is near the upper end of the intensity guidance. By 48 hours, increasing southwesterly shear is forecast to initiate weakening, but Willa is likely to remain a very strong hurricane through landfall in southwestern Mexico. After landfall, rapid weakening and dissipation over the mountainous terrain of mainland Mexico should occur. Key Messages: 1. Willa is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the coast of southwestern mainland Mexico by late Tuesday or Wednesday bringing a life-threatening storm surge, dangerous winds, and life-threatening flash flooding, and hurricane and tropical storm watches are now in effect for a portion of the area. Residents in the watch areas should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 16.6N 106.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 17.2N 107.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 18.2N 107.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 19.3N 107.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 20.4N 107.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 23.3N 105.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/1200Z 26.5N 101.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown ]]>
  • Hurricane Willa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6 Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 211442 PWSEP4 HURRICANE WILLA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018 1500 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILLA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 12(18) 1(19) X(19) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 2(12) X(12) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 7(32) X(32) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) CULIACAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 44(55) 35(90) 1(91) X(91) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 48(65) 1(66) X(66) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 38(43) 1(44) X(44) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 69(73) 5(78) X(78) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 7(45) X(45) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 4(23) X(23) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 53(61) 5(66) X(66) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 3(31) X(31) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 27(40) 2(42) X(42) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 105W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 9(16) 1(17) X(17) MANZANILLO 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 7(18) 1(19) X(19) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 13(26) 5(31) X(31) X(31) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>
  • Hurricane Willa Graphics Hurricane Willa 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 21 Oct 2018 17:35:21 GMT

    Hurricane Willa 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 21 Oct 2018 15:28:05 GMT ]]>